Two special elections Tuesday for House seats from Florida will be a test of the popularity of the first 70 days of President Donald Trump’s second term and will decide whether or not Republicans can maintain their already slender margin of control in the House of Representatives.
The stakes are high. With four seats currently vacant, Republicans have a narrow 218-213 majority in the House; meaning, they can already afford little dissent in their ranks if they are to pass an ambitious budget reconciliation plan in the coming months.
One sign Republicans are wary of a further reduction in their House majority is the withdrawal of Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., from consideration to be United Nations ambassador.
Trump justified withdrawing her nomination by saying he didn’t want to risk a hit to Republicans’ “very tight majority.”
Falling on the same day as Wisconsin’s high-profile Supreme Court election, Florida’s special House races will have major implications for the legislative power and general morale of both parties.
At stake in Florida are the 1st and 6th Congressional Districts—both of which were vacated after Trump nominated their representatives to Cabinet positions.
Former Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz gave up the seat in the 1st District, at the western edge of Florida’s Panhandle, after being nominated for attorney general, but abandoned the bid to become AG amid a congressional ethics probe. Former Republican Rep. Mike Waltz vacated the seat for the 6th District, between the Jacksonville and Orlando metro areas, to serve as national security adviser.
Those districts are ruby red, with both Gaetz and Waltz winning with two-thirds of the vote in November 2024.
But Democrats are hoping that they can either pull off a stunning upset or send a powerful message of their party’s continued relevance in Florida and the wider Southeastern region with at least a closer-than-expected loss.
In the 6th District, Republican state Sen. Randy Fine is facing off against Democrat Josh Weil, an Orlando teacher. A recent poll showed Fine with a 4 percentage point lead in the race—within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error. A March 30 New York Times analysis indicated Republicans have a 9-point advantage in early voting.
Trump has referred to Fine on Truth Social as a “Harvard Educated, Successful Businessman, and Highly Respected State Legislator.”
Some Republicans have become worried, however, by Democrats’ strong fundraising advantage in the race. Recent Federal Election Commission filings showed Weil outraising Fine by a 10-to-1 margin.
That fundraising advantage likely reflects Democrats’ interest in making up ground in Florida and the wider Southeast.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin visited Florida this past weekend and told Politico that his party “can’t give up on Florida” because the state could gain as many as five additional congressional seats after the 2030 census.
In the 1st District, Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis is facing off against Democrat Gay Valimont, who lost to Gaetz by 32 points in 2024, her first attempt at winning public office.
Trump described Patronis on Truth Social as “a fourth-generation Floridian from the beautiful Panhandle, and owner of an iconic seafood restaurant” who “has been a wonderful friend to me, and to MAGA.”
Patronis appears to have a comfortable advantage in the 1st District, as a New York Times analysis reported Republicans have a 19-point advantage in early voting as of Sunday.
