The United States Senate, the last outpost of Republican Trump Derangement Syndrome in Washington, DC, has regularly been the rocks upon which President Trump’s agenda has foundered.
But today for a change there’s some good news from the Senate.
The Crapo and Graham budget utilizes a “current policy baseline” which is the best path for making the Trump tax cuts permanent. Part of the reason this is such good news is a bit of Senate procedural arcana that Senator Crapo explained:
• A current policy baseline more accurately reflects reality. Maintaining existing tax rates and preventing a $4 trillion tax hike is not the same as $4 trillion in deficit spending. Utilizing a current policy baseline would not increase the deficit.
• The CBO baseline is not strictly based on current law—it is a hybrid system, and extensively uses both current law and current policy. CBO incorporates a hybrid of assumptions into its baseline, which treats spending programs more favorably than tax policies. Under the most recent CBO baseline, there is $2.5 trillion in spending automatically extended over the next 10 years under a current policy baseline, while preventing tax hikes are scored as increasing the deficit under a current law baseline.
• A current policy baseline has been used for tax policy before. In 2013, the Obama White House and Congress extended existing tax policy, arguing that a “current policy baseline to be the appropriate reference point, since it measures changes relative to the status quo, rather than the mix of expiring provisions and policy changes that would likely never be implemented.”
• A current policy baseline does not prevent Congress from cutting spending. As the Wall Street Journal notes, “Washington’s deliberately opaque budget rules haven’t checked spending, and both parties have found ways to game the system with gimmicks. Using the current policy baseline to extend current tax law is in the best interests of the country to avoid a giant tax increase, and Republicans can rightly defend it.”
And it looks like President Trump is on board with the Senate bill.
We imagine most CHQ readers, indeed most Americans, probably think to themselves, “I don’t care about the Senate Rules, I just don’t want my taxes to go up” but here’s what would happen if the Senate get in a deadlock over the rules and can’t get this bill passed. If the tax cuts expire:
* More-than $4 trillion tax hike on individuals and businesses
* More than $2.6T tax hike on households earning less than $400,000 per year
* Average family of four making $80,000 would see a more-than $1,700 tax increase.
* Tens of millions of families will see their Child Tax Credit cut in half to $1,000
* The standard deduction—which 90 percent of taxpayers claim—would be cut in half.
* Owners of over 20 million small businesses would be hit with a $600 billion tax hike, with tax rates up to 43.4 percent.
* The U.S. would suffer economic damage in the form of 6 million job losses, $540 billion in lost wages, and $1.1 trillion in U.S. GDP
Congratulations to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Senate Budget Chairman Lindsey Graham, and Senate Finance Chairman Mike Crapo for getting this bill ready to go to the Floor. The Capitol Switchboard is (202-224-3121), we urge CHQ readers and friends to call their Senators TODAY to demand they bring the FY 2025 Budget Resolution to the Floor NOW to pass President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” and make the Trump tax cuts permanent.
