The Catholic Church enters a solemn but decisive chapter after Pope Francis’ death at age 88 on Easter Monday — one that could reshape the direction of its global mission and doctrinal tone.
The Church now prepares for one of the most globally diverse and ideologically charged conclaves to choose a new pope in its history.
Currently, 138 cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote in the coming election, the vast majority of them appointed by Francis himself. According to The Pillar, he elevated 79% of voting-age cardinals, many of them from underrepresented corners of the Catholic world: the Global South, small island nations and remote dioceses with no prior history of Vatican influence.
In the coming weeks, 120 of the electorate-eligible cardinals will enter the Sistine Chapel to begin the solemn and secretive task of electing the next pope. The conclave must begin within 20 days of the pontiff’s death.
“There are strong cultural currents within Catholicism that shape the way [cardinals] understand their mission and purpose,” Mathew Schmalz, professor of religious studies at the College of the Holy Cross, told The Washington Times. “And the cardinals, particularly those based outside Rome, are deeply sensitive to the concerns of their local constituencies.”
Still, some Catholics are calling for a step back from the upheaval of recent years.
SEE ALSO: Pope Francis, first Catholic pontiff from South America, dies at age 88
Francis often frustrated conservative Catholics with his pastoral tone and reform-minded agenda. From restricting the traditional Latin Mass to offering a more welcoming stance toward LGBTQ Catholics and the divorced, his approach was seen by critics as blurring doctrinal lines and unsettling long-standing norms.
“Our God may be a God of surprises, but just now my sense is that we need much less that’s novel, interesting and ‘surprising,’ much more that is plain, solid and sane,” Catholic commentator Robert Royal wrote in The Catholic Thing.
Some expect Francis’ successor to nudge the Church back toward the ideological center.
“Whoever is elected will be of a centrally conservative disposition; after 12 years of Pope Francis ‘stirring things up,’” Serenhedd James, editor of Britain’s Catholic Herald magazine, told the New York Post. “I think the cardinals will want someone who will take a different, calmer approach.”
Still, others say the Church will want to continue down the ideological path Francis led it during his tenure.
“The church is becoming more global and less centered on Rome as ‘running’ everything,” David Gibson, director of the Center on Religion and Culture at Fordham University, told Newsweek. “I think it unlikely that you will get the pope-as-policeman that some on the American right seem to want.”
The conclave changes are indeed geographic. In 2013, when Francis was elected, European cardinals made up 57% of the electorate. Today, they comprise just 45%, according to The Pillar. Latin America, Africa and Asia have steadily risen in influence.
This shift may slow the next conclave.
“It’s possible that … many of the men gathering to elect the next pope will be strangers to one another,” The Pillar reported last year.
Still, several front-runners have emerged from both progressive and traditionalist wings of the Church.
Among the liberal-leaning candidates is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, 67, a theologian and former Vatican official often described as the “Asian Pope Francis.” He has called for a more inclusive Catholic Church and spoken openly about the need to welcome divorced and LGBTQ Catholics. His election would mark the first papacy from Asia.
Also in the mix is Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, of France. He is reportedly Francis’ “favorite” cardinal to succeed him.
Vatican analyst Giuseppe Masciullo has called him a “dangerous contender” for the papacy, saying that Cardinal Aveline “is particularly appreciated” in left-wing ecclesiastical and political camps and supports “strong decentralization” for the Church, according to The New York Post.
From the more conservative camp, Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea, 78, has long been one of the most forceful voices for tradition. He has called for a return to Latin Mass and criticized what he views as theological drift under Pope Francis.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of Congo, 65, is also seen as a conservative contender. He currently leads the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar and was a vocal critic of the Vatican’s move to allow same-sex blessings.
Meanwhile, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, of Italy — the current Vatican secretary of state — represents the centrist establishment. He is viewed as a continuity candidate who might dial back some of Francis’ boldness while maintaining his foreign policy legacy.
Other names in the mix include Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy, a Pope Francis confidant known for leading peace talks in Ukraine; Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary, a doctrinally rigid intellectual; Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith of Sri Lanka, who opposes same-sex marriage and supports Latin liturgy; and Cardinal Odilo Scherer of Brazil, a moderate with experience in Vatican finance.
Cardinal Ranjith, 77, archbishop of Colombo, Sri Lanka, is seen as a particularly viable candidate as his region of the world is experiencing profound Catholic growth.
Another contender, physician and theologian Cardinal Willem Jacobus Eijk, 71, of the Netherlands is drawing attention. He is an accomplished administrator and opposes blessings for same-sex couples and “gender therapy.”
Even with competing ideologies, some experts insist the next pope will need to match Francis’ accessibility while perhaps softening his pace of change.
“In terms of public relations, it would not be good to have a very distant and regal pontiff,” Mr. Schmalz said. “So, someone who’s a man of the people … but someone who engages with others a little bit differently than Pope Francis is what I would expect. If they don’t, the conclave could be a very long time.”
Inside the Sistine Chapel during the conclave (derived from the Latin “cum clave,” meaning “with key”), cardinals will cast up to four ballots a day. If no candidate receives the required two-thirds majority after 30 rounds, the voting narrows: Only the top two candidates remain eligible, and the electors must choose between them until one emerges with the necessary support to become the next bishop of Rome.
Francis, the first pope from the Americas and a champion of the peripheries, had been hospitalized in February for more than a month in critical condition with a complex lung infection and kidney complications.
Doctors had placed him on high levels of oxygen, and blood tests showed “early, slight kidney insufficiency.” His death was confirmed by the Vatican Monday morning.
Just hours before his death, the pope met with Vice President J.D. Vance and made a final appearance to bless the crowds at St. Peter’s Basilica for Easter.
