This was a really interesting couple of pieces I came across this morning, especially after writing that piece on all the student loan defaults.
It seems there might be a trend back towards the trades beginning to appear among the Gen Z crowd.
Some of the reasons seem obvious to me – the bloated cost of a college education, for one, and the ubiquitous nature of the sheepskin being required for even entry-level jobs now.
If everyone needs a college degree, doesn’t that necessarily dilute the value of earning one?
…That’s in part because of the cost of getting a bachelor’s degree, they tell CNBC Make It. The annual cost of attending a four-year, in-state public college increased by about 30% between 2011 and 2023, according to Make It calculations based on data from the Education Data Initiative, and went up by 42% at private, nonprofit four-year colleges.
“There are about 2 million fewer students in a traditional four-year university now than in 2011,” says Nich Tremper, senior economist at payroll and benefits platform Gusto.
The return on investment angle is another reason for dropping college enrollment numbers, and that shrinking ROI ties into both the overabundance of degrees and a job market in contraction.
…More than a third of all graduates now say their degree was a “waste of money,” according to a new survey by Indeed. This frustration is especially pronounced among Gen Z, with 51% expressing remorse—compared to 41% of millennials and just 20% of baby boomers.
Another reason for the shift in thinking is trying to gauge a future degree as AI-proof. One where the keyboard robot doesn’t boot you from your livelihood after you’ve finally secured it.
…The spread of artificial intelligence into all parts of education and the workplace has made college graduates question their degree even more, with some 30% feeling AI has outright made their degree irrelevant—a number that jumps to 45% among Gen Zers.
This is despite efforts from thought leaders in the space to calm fears about AI replacing workers. “AI is not going to take your job,” Netflix’s co-CEO Ted Sarandos said last year. “The person who uses AI well might take your job.”
That one was not on my radar, although I’m not terribly worried. The first Beegebot will be terrifying, and they’ll never make another.
It’s also turning out that a generation raised on those computers who are savvy enough to worry about the impact of coming technology on their careers – many of whom never had the opportunity for a shop class or the like in high school as such things are often the first to go in tightened schools budgets, and with all emphasis on tech – has discovered the joy of getting their hands dirty.
Of ‘fixing’ things for themselves.
…Morgan Bradbury, 21, first tried welding in high school. She loved it.
“I just immediately was mesmerized by the fact that I could have the ability to build things with my own hands,” she says. After graduating high school, Bradbury took a nine-month welding certification course at Universal Technical Institute for about $21,000.
She got a job at military and information security company BAE Systems before even completing her course with a starting salary of about $57,000 per year. She’s now a second-class welder on U.S. Navy ships in Norfolk, Virginia.
That ‘trade’ stigma is wearing off rapidly, no?
To the point where The Wall Street Journal has christened Gen Z the ‘Tool Belt Generation.’
1. 56% of Gen Z would rather turn a wrench than type in a spreadsheet.
They see:
• Insane college costs
• Rising pay of blue-collar jobs
• Less stigma on working with your handsThe Wall Street Journal calls them the ‘Toolbelt Generation.’ It’s easy to see why: pic.twitter.com/C7kvPyNtu4
— Codie Sanchez (@Codie_Sanchez) May 18, 2024
School districts are beginning to revisit the VoTech high school, but in ways that blow the old basic curricula out of the water.
6. Innovative new school models are blending the classroom and the jobsite
Campuses like Opportunity Central in Texas mix academics with real-world work experience.
The future of education may look more like this than a lecture hall: pic.twitter.com/wG2OBAFc5o
— Codie Sanchez (@Codie_Sanchez) May 18, 2024
Enrollment in high school and post-graduation vocational programs, the WSJ says, is ‘surging.’
…Long beset by a labor crunch, the skilled trades are newly appealing to the youngest cohort of American workers, many of whom are choosing to leave the college path. Rising pay and new technologies in fields from welding to machine tooling are giving trade professions a face-lift, helping them shed the image of being dirty, low-end work. Growing skepticism about the return on a college education, the cost of which has soared in recent decades, is adding to their shine.
Enrollment in vocational training programs is surging as overall enrollment in community colleges and four-year institutions has fallen. The number of students enrolled in vocational-focused community colleges rose 16% last year to its highest level since the National Student Clearinghouse began tracking such data in 2018. The ranks of students studying construction trades rose 23% during that time, while those in programs covering HVAC and vehicle maintenance and repair increased 7%.
“It’s a really smart route for kids who want to find something and aren’t gung ho on going to college,” says Tanner Burgess, 20, who graduated from a nine-month welding program last fall.
Is Gen Z leading a revival in the trades?
Two interesting data points.
1. In an aging country, where everything is getting older, median age of electricians, mechanics, and plumbers is falling.
2. Vocational school enrollment is growing much, much faster than 4-year college. pic.twitter.com/DpuVfcMzWV
— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) April 1, 2024
There’s always room for a guy or gal who knows their stuff and is willing to keep learning more.
…“Industries like construction, manufacturing, and trade, transportation, and utilities have had lower termination rates than sectors where many white collar workers are concentrated, like professional and business services,” he says.
And with Baby Boomers slowly exiting the workforce, more opportunities could open up. “As these folks age out,” says Tremper, “Gen Z workers are going to be able to move into a space where they’re building their own businesses, adding to the dynamism of the economy and really providing a lot more opportunity for themselves financially.”
Higher education was already facing an enrollment disaster, as the number of 18-year-olds declined in what they’ve called a ‘demographic cliff.’
…The outlook, Moore and other experts say, is that there will likely be many more such scenes in the years ahead. That’s because the current class of high school seniors scheduled to graduate this spring will be the last before an expected long decline begins in the number of 18-year-olds — the traditional age of students when they enter college.
I’m sure, in their arrogance, they hadn’t counted on general disaffection with their institutions among the graduating seniors they had left to draw from, to maintain their student bodies. Toss in a healthy dose of parents who will no longer allow their seniors to consider certain institutions thanks to what’s going on on campus, and these colleges could have a real financial crisis on their hands in short order.
It’s going to be quite a shock to the system if the virtues of honest blue-collar labor are once again celebrated instead of reviled and mocked.
Rebalancing that would be a pretty neat thing.
