SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea’s Constitutional Court has announced a ruling on the impeachment case against President Yoon Suk Yeol will be handed down at 11 a.m. local time Friday.
The court’s long-awaited decision is expected to release a tightly wound political pressure valve in the South Korean capital, where rival protest groups have shut down streets for weeks.
The 64-year-old conservative president was impeached 13 days after his short-lived attempt to declare martial law on Dec. 3. His fate was subsequently placed in the hands of the Constitutional Court.
The court has a nine-judge bench, but one seat is not occupied. Six votes are required to uphold impeachment, meaning just three dissenters would return Mr. Yoon to power.
Closed-door, in-court deliberations on whether to uphold or overturn the National Assembly’s impeachment of Mr. Yoon have dragged on far longer than the country’s two prior presidential impeachments: 14 days in 2004 (overturned) and 11 days in 2017 (upheld).
As of Friday, the court will have been deciding Mr. Yoon’s fate for a whopping 38 days since closing the hearings in the case.
If the court overturns impeachment, Mr. Yoon will return to the presidency; his term expires in May 2027. If it upholds it, a presidential election must be held within 60 days.
Either way, the court decision should restore leadership to a key U.S. ally that faces a raft of policy issues.
An immediate one is the response to U.S. President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs that are scheduled to be imposed Wednesday. Longer-term challenges include the country’s complex net of relationships with China, Japan and North Korea.
Per recent polls, if a presidential plebiscite takes place, it would be handily won by main opposition leader Lee Jae-myung of the leftist Democratic Party of Korea.
As of 2024 parliamentary elections, the DPK controls the unicameral legislature through 2028. If Mr. Lee wins a five-year presidential term, his party will hold both national power centers for the next three years.
Simmering fears of violence, instability
Tuesday’s announcement of the court’s impending ruling looks set to pump a last jolt of energy into the pro- and anti-Yoon protests that have been roiling the nation, most particularly Seoul, since last December.
Early demonstrations, pre-impeachment, centered around the National Assembly, on the island of Yeouido in Seoul’s Han River.
Post-impeachment, protesters seeking to influence the Constitutional Court have shifted their activities to northern Seoul’s central business district Gwanghwamun, and nearby Anguk, the location of the Constitutional Court, especially on Saturdays.
Early turnouts were massive — in the high tens of thousands — but in recent weeks, numbers appear to have fallen.
With both voters and lawmakers deeply polarized and furious invective being spewed, some fear that opponents of Friday’s decision could explode into violence, or prolonged civil unrest.
The police are taking no chances: Some 14,000 officers will deploy in Seoul Friday from a nationwide force of 130,000 — which will have all leave cancelled on the day.
Violent protests, complete with Molotov cocktails and tear gas barrages, were commonplace during the 1980s and early 1990s in Korea.
However, after police reform and a tear gas ban were enacted by the first opposition government to take power in Korea in 1998, riots have been replaced by peaceful — and often festive — protests.
One analyst is cautiously optimistic.
“Protests have been ongoing for several months, meaning some of the energy has been sapped,” said Christopher Green, who analyzes the Koreas for think tank International Crisis Group. “South Korea has a long tradition of protest, but in recent decades these protests have not been excessively violent.”
Despite the high emotions ignited since impeachment, violence has been almost entirely absent.
On Dec. 3, Mr. Yoon deployed Tier-1 commandos to prevent National Assembly representatives from voting down martial law — unsuccessfully. No commandos used their rifles — either as firearms or batons — against indignant demonstrators who rallied to the assembly building. No injuries were reported.
Subsequently, violence was again avoided in a tense standoff between presidential security personnel and police and investigators who arrived at Mr. Yoon’s residence to rendition him to a detention facility.
Both pro- and anti-Yoon protests have been marked by banner waving, speeches and peaceful, if noisy, group singing and dancing.
Peace has prevailed even when protesters from the different camps have encountered each other in downtown locations such as subway station entrances, leading to heated arguments and finger wagging.
The only exception was on Jan. 19. On a day that shocked the nation, pro-Yoon demonstrators broke into a court building, damaging windows and furniture, and injuring several police officers.
