Two recent polls show that Democrats are in trouble with younger voters, which has been a key demographic for them in past elections.
And if the Democrats cannot hold the youth vote by a large margin, their chances of retaking the House and Senate in 2026 narrow considerably.
The Harvard Youth Poll conducted last month among 18-29 year-olds found “The share of young Americans who approve of Congressional Democrats has dropped 19 points since Spring 2017 — from 42 percent to just 23 percent.”
In contrast, Harvard reported, “In that same period, approval of Congressional Republicans has held steady, inching up slightly from 28 percent to 29 percent.”
Meanwhile, the Yale Youth Poll conducted earlier this month reported, “When asked whether they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in the 2026 congressional elections in their district, voters aged 22–29 favored the Democratic candidate by a margin of 6.4 points, but voters aged 18–21 favored the Republican by a margin of 11.7 points.”
Turning Point USA president Charlie Kirk responded to the poll, posting on social media platform X, “The latest Yale Youth Poll confirms the trend we’ve seen at one campus after another: The youngest voters have turned sharply to the right. Yale found 22-29 year olds favored Democrats by ONLY 6.4 points. But kids of college age, 18-21, lean Republican by almost 12 (!!)”
“The most dramatic generational political swing in history is unfolding before our eyes,” he added.
The latest Yale Youth Poll confirms the trend we’ve seen at one campus after another: The youngest voters have turned sharply to the right. Yale found 22-29 year olds favored Democrats by ONLY 6.4 points. But kids of college age, 18-21, lean Republican by almost 12 (!!)
The most… pic.twitter.com/UhIgCWsoHA
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) April 15, 2025
Kirk has been seeing massive crowds at his college campus rallies around the country this spring.
HELLO BOISE STATE 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Another amazing stop on our college campus tour. It never gets old.
Gen Z is rising.🔥 pic.twitter.com/9TAut0ZyT1
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) April 15, 2025
Conservative social media influencer Collin Rugg noted regarding a rally this week at Texas A&M, “Today, the packed crowd is for Charlie Kirk and the lib can’t even get a dozen people to show up. Mind blowing shift.”
8 years ago, the larger crowd on campus would have been for the liberal.
Today, the packed crowd is for Charlie Kirk and the lib can’t even get a dozen people to show up.
Mind blowing shift. https://t.co/cKQXiJBh4p
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 22, 2025
Kirk pointed out that even in the blue state of Washington, impressive numbers are turning out for his rallies.
It should be noted that Washington State is located in the more conservative eastern part of the state, in a congressional district represented by a Republican for decades. Nonetheless, it is a public university (not a private conservative or Christian college), and Kirk and Turning Point USA are turning the young people out.
MASSIVE CROWD AT WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY 🔥🔥🔥
This blue state is FILLED with young patriots 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/ustrmHqIxT
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) April 17, 2025
Last fall, President Donald Trump won the 18-29 year-old male voter demographic 56 to 42 percent.
Young women also moved in his direction, shifting from 33 percent support in 2020 to 40 percent in this year’s election, according to a Tufts survey.
Overall, the president garnered 46 percent of the demographic in 2024, up from 36 percent in 2020.
Do you think Republicans will gain Congressional seats in 2026?
If Trump and the Republicans can deliver on campaign promises of an improved economy, and otherwise, things are looking good for the GOP to maintain control of Congress.
Who knows? Maybe they’ll even buck the historical trend and pick up a few seats during the midterms.
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